Working & Living in ASEAN: Between Foreign Talent and Immigrant Labour – Perspective of a male Singaporean Citizen who has served National Service.

In the era of globalization, barriers to international employment that were once present have been demolished with every new free trade agreement signed, every trans-national treaty acceded to. In this day and age, most wear the badge of a global citizen with pride. International job mobility is perceived as good, and a refusal to be fluid can leave one stuck with the prospect of unemployment and a higher standard of living.

The first speech Dr. Jorgen O. Moller clearly supports the above stance. He particularly raises the example of world-renowned football clubs having a team of international players to support this point. While I am not entirely against what he states in entirety, as I do believe organizations do have the right to seek the best from around so as to meet their operating targets. However, sometimes, probably also due to government encouragement and policy, organizations might be all-too-eager to recruit international talents that they overlook the potential that the local talent pool holds. While international expertise adds the diversity of overseas management experience into the organizational mix, but should an organization be overzealous in its pursuit in the collection of international perspectives in its senior management, it may lose focus on what made it successful in the first place – an innate understanding and awareness of the local ground and needs; which is what the local employees whom has worked their way from ground up possess. Multinational corporations and companies aspiring to go global should never forget that to be successful in business, competency in local market knowledge is often more important than a plethora of diverse opinions from expatriates which might or might not work, due to the differences in cultures.

The second presentation given by Ms Mathi addressed more on the issues of the welfare and well-being of foreign labour in this country. I am in general support of her opinions and views that most of our lower wage earning workers should be treated with more respect and given more welfare, given that they do work that most Singaporeans are unwilling to do, and if we had a less liberal foreign labour policy, chances are that most Singaporean families would be unable to afford a foreign helper at home, or have such well-maintained infrastructure and clean surrounding environments. However, it must be noted that due to the drop in real income of our bottom 30% of families, many Singaporeans have also taken up jobs that are on level with the foreign labour that is employed here. While we should show care and concern to the low-wage foreign workers in Singapore, let us not forget about the low-income families here in Singapore as well, and provide them with equivalent or better welfare to that of the low-wage foreign workers, given that they are our brethrens after all.

I didn’t manage to catch the gist of Mr David Ang’s speech as I was in the washroom for the first half of his speech, and hence I cannot comment on his speech.

In summary, I am all for the need for further economic integration and labour integration of ASEAN. However, let us please do not forget about our own less well-off citizens while society busies itself with the above activities.

Peak Oil vs. Running Out of Oil

Will Singapore Survive Post-Peak Oil? Considering we import almost all our food...I highly doubt it...Thailand & Vietnam are better places to live in should the Peak pass...

Extracted from The Oil Drum - DrumBeat: September 11, 2006.

...Many people in the Peak Oil movement claims that we are running out of oil. While there may be many very uninformed nuts out there who really believe we are running out of oil, they, by definition, could not possibly be peak oilers. It would be impossible to be at peak production and out of oil, that is just plain common sense. All peak oilers know that post peak, the amount of oil available each year will decrease each year...forever. Now I know there may be one year or two when oil the oil supply will increase, just as the US production increased for a few years after Prudhoe Bay came on line. But the trend will be downward....forever or until not enough oil is produced to even measure.

What many seem to think is that returning to 1980 oil production levels will mean a 1980 lifestyle. That is, if we will just have to scale back a little and, with the aid of ethanol and biodiesel we will get by just fine. This is what most of us peak oilers deny.

First of all, the decline is not likely to be steady. Most oil exporters will have dramatically increased their domestic production. They will supply their own needs before trying to keep the rest of the world on an even keel. There will develop an enormous difference between the oil available in countries that now export oil and countries that now must import most of their oil.

Second, most of these countries, who now realize the gravity of the situation, will start to husband their oil. They will cut back on production in order to insure stability in their own countries at the expense of the rest of the world.

Third, the realization will eventually dawn on the world's markets that all the economies of the world must now shrink instead of grow. Capitalism depends on growth. People invest for growth and no one invests for shrinkage. People will pull their money out of the market because they will correctly see the crash coming. This will just exacerbate the situation and we will have a disastrous world-wide market crash. This will mean lay-offs, unemployment, and an economic disaster far surpassing anything seen in the great depression.

The world's population will have at least doubled since 1980. And since we are already seeing a drop in grain and other food production, this will greatly exacerbate the problem. Dropping oil production will mean that grain and other food production will begin to drop like a rock. There will be food riots all over the world.

And as some have already pointed out, the oil left will be prioritized. That is the military will be first in line, then what is deemed "necessary government agencies" and so on down the line.

And that is the point Roger, and others who seem to think that declining oil production will simply mean a slightly lower lifestyle. Not even close. No, the world as we know it feeds on oil. And as the oil flow is interrupted, and gets a little worse every year, then civilization as we know it will disappear a little each year. Anarchy and resource wars will probably accelerate the situation until the scenario pictured by David Price comes to pass...

David Price's Die-off Scenario. We'll crash just like a bacteria colony on an agar plate after blooming beyond the carrying capacity of the agar dish:

THE MECHANISMS OF COLLAPSE

Operative mechanisms in the collapse of the human population will be starvation, social strife, and disease. These major disasters were recognized long before Malthus and have been represented in western culture as horsemen of the apocalypse. 8 They are all consequences of scarce resources and dense population.

Starvation will be a direct outcome of the depletion of energy resources. Today's dense population is dependent for its food supply on mechanized agriculture and efficient transportation. Energy is used to manufacture and operate farm equipment, and energy is used to take food to market. As less efficient energy resources come to be used, food will grow more expensive and the circle of privileged consumers to whom an adequate supply is available will continue to shrink.

Social strife is another consequence of the rising cost of commercial energy. Everything people want takes energy to produce, and as energy becomes more expensive, fewer people have access to goods they desire. When goods are plentiful, and particularly when per-capita access to goods is increasing, social tensions are muted: Ethnically diverse populations often find it expedient to live harmoniously, governments may be ineffective and slow to respond, and little force is needed to maintain domestic tranquillity. But when goods become scarce, and especially when per-capita access to goods is decreasing, ethnic tensions surface, governments become authoritarian, and goods are acquired, increasingly, by criminal means.

A shortage of resources also cripples public health systems, while a dense population encourages the spread of contagious diseases. Throughout human history, the development of large, dense populations has led to the appearance of contagious diseases that evolved to exploit them. Smallpox and measles were apparently unknown until the second and third centuries AD, when they devastated the population of the Mediterranean basin (McNeill, 1976, p. 105). In the fourteenth century, a yet larger and denser population in both Europe and China provided a hospitable niche for the Black Death. Today, with extremely dense population and all parts of the world linked by air travel, new diseases such as AIDS spread rapidly-and a virus as deadly as AIDS but more easily transmissible could appear at any time.

Starvation, social strife, and disease interact in complex ways. If famine were the sole mechanism of collapse, the species might become extinct quite suddenly. A population that grows in response to abundant but finite resources, like the reindeer of St. Matthew Island, tends to exhaust these resources completely. By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. And in its struggle to survive, the last generation uses up every scrap, so that nothing remains that would sustain even a small population. But famine seldom acts alone. It is exacerbated by social strife, which interferes with the production and delivery of food. And it weakens the natural defenses by which organisms fight off disease.

Paradoxically, disease can act to spare resources. If, for example, a new epidemic should reduce the human population to a small number of people who happen to be resistant to it before all the world's resources are severely depleted, the species might be able to survive a while longer.

AFTER THE FALL

But even if a few people manage to survive worldwide population collapse, civilization will not. The complex association of cultural traits of which modern humans are so proud is a consequence of abundant resources, and cannot long outlive their depletion.

Civilization refers, in its derivation, to the habit of living in dense nucleated settlements, which appeared as population grew in response to plentiful resources. Many things seem to follow as a matter of course when people live in cities, and wherever civilization occurred, it has involved political consolidation, economic specialization, social stratification, some sort of monumental architecture, and a flowering of artistic and intellectual endeavor (Childe, 1951).

Localized episodes of such cultural elaboration have always been associated with rapid population growth. Reasons for the abundance of resources that promoted this growth vary from one case to another. In some instances, a population moved into a new region with previously untapped resources; in other instances the development or adoption of new crops, new technologies, or new social strategies enhanced production. But the Sumerians, the Greeks, the Romans, the Mayas, and even the Easter Islanders all experienced a surge of creative activity as their populations grew rapidly.

And in all cases, this creative phase, nourished by the same abundance that promoted population growth, came to an end when growth ended. One need not seek esoteric reasons for the decline of Greece or the fall of Rome; in both cases, the growth of population exhausted the resources that had promoted it. After the Golden Age, the population of Greece declined continually for more than a thousand years, from 3 million to about 800,000. The population of the Roman Empire fell from 45 or 46 million, at its height, to about 39 million by 600 AD, and the European part of the empire was reduced by 25% (McEvedy & Jones, 1978).

Even if world population could be held constant, in balance with "renewable" resources, the creative impulse that has been responsible for human achievements during the period of growth would come to an end. And the spiraling collapse that is far more likely will leave, at best, a handfull of survivors. These people might get by, for a while, by picking through the wreckage of civilization, but soon they would have to lead simpler lives, like the hunters and subsistence farmers of the past. They would not have the resources to build great public works or carry forward scientific inquiry. They could not let individuals remain unproductive as they wrote novels or composed symphonies. After a few generations, they might come to believe that the rubble amid which they live is the remains of cities built by gods.

Or it may prove impossible for even a few survivors to subsist on the meager resources left in civilization's wake. The children of the highly technological society into which more and more of the world's peoples are being drawn will not know how to support themselves by hunting and gathering or by simple agriculture. In addition, the wealth of wild animals that once sustained hunting societies will be gone, and topsoil that has been spoiled by tractors will yield poorly to the hoe. A species that has come to depend on complex technologies to mediate its relationship with the environment may not long survive their loss.

INTO THE DARK

For Malthus, the imbalance between the growth of population and means of subsistence might be corrected, from time to time, through natural disasters, but the human species could, in principle, survive indefinitely. Malthus did not know that the universe is governed by the Second Law of Thermodynamics; he did not understand the population dynamics of introduced species; and he did not appreciate that humans, having evolved long after the resource base on which they now rely, are effectively an introduced species on their own planet.

The short tenure of the human species marks a turning point in the history of life on Earth. Before the appearance of Homo sapiens, energy was being sequestered more rapidly than it was being dissipated. Then human beings evolved, with the capacity to dissipate much of the energy that had been sequestered, partially redressing the planet's energy balance. The evolution of a species like Homo sapiens may be an integral part of the life process, anywhere in the universe it happens to occur. As life develops, autotrophs expand and make a place for heterotrophs. If organic energy is sequestered in substantial reserves, as geological processes are bound to do, then the appearance of a species that can release it is all but assured. Such a species, evolved in the service of entropy, quickly returns its planet to a lower energy level. In an evolutionary instant, it explodes and is gone.

If the passage of Homo sapiens across evolution's stage significantly alters Earth's atmosphere, virtually all living things may become extinct quite rapidly. But even if this does not happen, the rise and fall of Homo sapiens will eliminate many species. It has been estimated that they are going extinct at a rate of 17,500 per year (Wilson, 1988, p. 13), and in the next twenty-five years as many as one-quarter of the world's species may be lost (Raven, 1988, p. 121).

This is a radical reduction in biological diversity, although life has survived other die-offs, such as the great collapse at the end of the Permian. It is unlikely, however, that anything quite like human beings will come this way again. The resources that have made humans what they are will be gone, and there may not be time before the sun burns out for new deposits of fossil fuel to form and intelligent new scavengers to evolve. The universe seems to have had a unique beginning, some ten or twenty billion years ago (Hawking, 1988, p. 108). Since that time, a star had to live and die to provide the materials for the solar system -- which, itself, is several billion years old. Perhaps life could not have happened any sooner than it did. Perhaps Homo sapiens could not have evolved any sooner. Or later. Perhaps everything has its season, a window of opportunity that opens for a while, then shuts.

Green House Gases, Global Warming & Climate Change

Climate change

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Variations in CO₂, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 400 000 years

Climate change refers to the variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. It describes changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere—or average weather—over time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes may come from processes internal to the Earth, be driven by external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) or, most recently, be caused by human activities.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term "climate change" often refers only to the ongoing changes in modern climate, including the rise in average surface temperature known as global warming. In some cases, the term is also used with a presumption of human causation, as in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC uses "climate variability" for non-human caused variations.^[1]

For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, see attribution of recent climate change.

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Climate change factors

Climate changes reflect variations within the Earth's environment, natural processes going on around it, and the impact of human activity. The external factors which can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such processes as variations in solar radiation, the Earth's orbit, and greenhouse gas concentrations.

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Variations within the Earth's climate

Weather, in and of itself, is a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, but in many cases, it is observed that the climate (i.e., the average state of weather) is fairly stable and predictable. This includes the average temperature, amount of precipitation, days of sunlight, and many other variables that might be measured at any given site. However, there are also changes within the Earth's environment that can affect the climate.

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Glaciation

Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 years

Glaciers are recognized as one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change, advancing substantially during climate cooling (e.g., the Little Ice Age of the last century) and retreating during climate warming on moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and collapse, both contributing to natural variability and greatly amplifying external forces. For the last century, however, glaciers have been unable to regenerate enough ice during the winters to make up for the ice lost during the summer months (see glacier retreat for more).

The most important climate processes of the last several million years are the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age. Though shaped by orbital variations, the internal responses involving continental ice sheets and 130 m sea-level change certainly played a key role in deciding what climate response would be observed in most regions. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas show the potential for glacial variations to influence climate even in the absence of specific orbital changes.

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Ocean variability

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

On the scale of mere decades, climate changes can also result from changes within the ocean/atmosphere systems. Many climate states, most obviously El Niño Southern oscillation, but also including the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, have been recognized as modes within the climate system, owing their existence at least in part to different ways that heat can be stored in the oceans and move between different reservoirs. On longer time scales, ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat, and could, if changed, dramatically impact climate.

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The memory of climate

More generally, most forms of internal variability in the climate system can be recognized as a form of hysteresis, meaning that the current state of climate reflects not only the inputs, but also the history of how it got there. For example, a decade of dry conditions may cause lakes to shrink, plains to dry up and deserts to expand. In turn, these conditions may lead to less rainfall in the following years. In short, climate change can be a self-perpetuating process because different aspects of the environment respond at different rates and in different ways to the fluctuations that inevitably occur.

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Non-climate factors driving climate change

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Greenhouse gases

Carbon dioxide variations during the last 500 million years

Current studies indicate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is the primary cause of global warming. Greenhouse gases are also important in understanding Earth's climate history. According to these studies, the greenhouse effect, which is the warming produced as greenhouse gases trap heat, plays a key role in regulating Earth's temperature.

Over the last 600 million years, carbon dioxide concentrations have varied from perhaps >5000 ppm to less than 200 ppm, due primarily to the impact of geological processes and biological innovations. Curiously, it has been argued (Veizer et al. 1999) that variations in greenhouse gas concentrations over tens of millions of years have not been well correlated to climate change, with plate tectonics perhaps playing a more dominant role. However there are several examples of rapid changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere that do appear to correlate to strong warming, including the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum, the Permian–Triassic extinction event, and the end of the Varangian snowball earth event.

During the modern era, rising carbon dioxide levels are implicated as the primary cause to global warming since 1950.

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Plate tectonics

On the longest time scales, plate tectonics will reposition continents, shape oceans, build and tear down mountains and generally serve to define the stage upon which climate exists. More recently, plate motions have been implicated in the intensification of the present ice age when, approximately 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided to form the Isthmus of Panama and shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

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Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of sunspots and beryllium isotopes.

The sun, as the ultimate source of nearly all energy in the climate system, is an integral part of shaping Earth's climate. On the longest time scales, the sun itself is getting brighter as it continues its main sequence evolution. Early in Earth's history, it is thought to have been too cold to support liquid water at the Earth's surface, leading to what is known as the Faint young sun paradox.

On more modern time scales, there are also a variety of forms of solar variation, including the 11–year solar cycle and longer-term modulations. However, the 11–year sunspot cycle does not manifest itself clearly in the climatological data. These variations are considered to be influential in triggering the Little Ice Age and for some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950.

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Orbital variations

In their impact on climate, orbital variations are in some sense an extension of solar variability, because slight variations in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the distribution and abundance of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. Such orbital variations, known as Milankovitch cycles, are a highly predictable consequence of basic physics due to the mutual interactions of the Earth, its moon, and the other planets. These variations are considered the driving factors underlying the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age. Subtler variations are also present, such as the repeated advance and retreat of the Sahara desert in response to orbital precession.

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Volcanism

A single eruption of the kind that occurs several times per century can impact climate, causing cooling for a period of a few years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 is barely visible on the global temperature profile. Huge eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but can reshape climate for millions of years and cause mass extinctions.

Attribution of recent climate change

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Human influences

Anthropogenic factors are acts by humans that change the environment and influence climate. The biggest factor of present concern is the increase in CO₂ levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) which exerts a cooling effect. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, and deforestation also impact climate.

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Fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial revolution.

Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 1850s and accelerating ever since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO₂ levels from a concentration of ~280 ppm to more than 370 ppm today. These increases are projected to reach more than 560 ppm before the end of the 21st century. Along with rising methane levels, these changes are anticipated to cause an increase of 1.4–5.6 °C between 1990 and 2100. (reference needed)

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Aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols, particularly sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, are believed to exert a cooling influence; see graph.^[2] This, together with natural variability, is believed to account for the relative "plateau" in the graph of 20th century temperatures in the middle of the century.

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Land use

Prior to widespread fossil fuel use, humanity's largest impact on local climate is likely to have resulted from land use. Irrigation, deforestation, and agriculture fundamentally change the environment. For example, they change the amount of water going into and out of a given locale. They also may change the local albedo by influencing the ground cover and altering the amount of sunlight which is absorbed. For example, there is evidence to suggest that the climate of Greece and other Mediterranean countries was permanently changed by widespread deforestation between 700 BC and 0 BC (the wood being used for ship-building, construction and fuel purposes), with the result that the modern climate in the region is significantly hotter and drier and the species of trees which were used for ship-building in the ancient world can no longer be found in the area.

A controversial hypothesis by William Ruddiman suggests that the rise of agriculture and the accompanying deforestation led to the increases in carbon dioxide and methane during the period 5000–8000 years ago. These increases, which reversed previous declines, may have been responsible for delaying the onset of the next glacial period, according to Ruddimann's hypothesis.

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Interplay of factors

If a certain forcing (for example, solar variation) acts to change the climate, then there may be mechanisms which act to amplify or reduce the effects. These are called positive and negative feedbacks. As far as is known, the climate system is generally stable with respect to these feedbacks: positive feedbacks do not "run away". Part of the reason for this is the existence of a powerful negative feedback between temperature and emitted radiation: radiation increases as the fourth power of absolute temperature.

However, a number of important positive feedbacks do exist. The glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age provide an important example. It is believed that orbital variations provide the timing for the growth and retreat of ice sheets. However, the ice sheets themselves reflect sunlight back into space and hence promote cooling and their own growth, known as the ice–albedo feedback. Further, falling sea levels and expanding ice decrease plant growth and indirectly lead to declines in carbon dioxide and methane. This leads to further cooling.

Similarly, rising temperatures caused, for example, by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to retreating snow lines, revealing darker ground underneath, and consequently result in more absorption of sunlight.

Water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide can also act as significant positive feedbacks, their levels rising in response to a warming trend, thereby accelerating that trend. Water vapor acts strictly as a feedback (excepting small amounts in the stratosphere), unlike the other major greenhouse gases, which can also act as forcings.

More complex feedbacks involve the possibility of changing circulation patterns in the ocean or atmosphere. For example, a significant concern in the modern case is that melting glacial ice from Greenland will interfere with sinking waters in the North Atlantic and inhibit thermohaline circulation. This could affect the Gulf Stream and the distribution of heat to Europe and the east coast of the United States.

Other potential feedbacks are not well understood and may either inhibit or promote warming. For example, it is unclear whether rising temperatures promote or inhibit vegetative growth, which could in turn draw down either more or less carbon dioxide. Similarly, increasing temperatures may lead to either more or less cloud cover.^[3] Since on balance cloud cover has a strong cooling effect, any change to the abundance of clouds also impacts climate.^[4]

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Monitoring the current status of climate

Scientists use "Indicator time series" that represent the many aspects of climate and ecosystem status. The time history provides an historical context. Current status of the climate is also monitored with climate indices.^[5][6][7]

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Evidence for Climatic Change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources which can be used to reconstruct past climates. Most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, Dendrochronology, Ice cores, sea level change, glacial retreat.

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Pollen Analysis

Species have particular climatic requirements which influence their geographical distributions. Each plant species has a distinctively shaped pollen grain and if these fall into oxygen-free environments, such as peat bogs, they resist decay. Changes in the pollen found in different levels of the bog indicate, by implication, changes in climate.

One limitation of this method is the fact that pollen can be transported considerable distances by wind or sometimes by wildlife.

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Coleoptera

Remains of Coleoptera beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of this beetle tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, allows past climatic conditions to be worked out.

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Glacial Geology

Advancing glaciers leave behind moraines and other features which often have datable material in them, recording the time when a glacier advance and deposited a feature. Similarly the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of datable soil or volcanic tephra horizons. Glaciers are considered one of the most sensitive climate indicators by the IPCC, and their recent observed variations provide a global signal of climate change, see Retreat of glaciers since 1850.

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Historical Records

Historical records include cave paintings, depth of grave digging in Greenland, diaries, documentary evidence of events (such as 'frost fairs' on the Thames) and evidence of areas of vine cultivation. Since 1873 daily weather reports have been documented, and the Royal Society has encouraged the collection of data since the seventeenth century. Parish records are often a good source of climate data.

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Examples of climate change

Climate change has continued throughout the entire history of Earth. The field of paleoclimatology has provided information of climate change in the ancient past, supplementing modern observations of climate. Obviously, most of these prehistoric changes are solely the result of natural factors.

1. Climate of the deep past
   • Faint young sun paradox
   • Snowball earth
   • Oxygen Catastrophe
2. Climate of the last 500 million years
   • Phanerozoic overview
   • Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
   • Cretaceous Thermal Maximum
   • Permo–Carboniferous Glaciation
   • Ice ages
3. Climate of recent glaciations
   • Dansgaard–Oeschger event
   • Younger Dryas
   • Ice age temperatures
4. Recent climate
   • Holocene Climatic Optimum
   • Medieval Warm Period
   • Little Ice Age
   • Temperature record of the past 1000 years
   • Global warming

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See also

• Abrupt climate change
• Action on climate change
• Climate Change Science Program
• Climate model
• Economics of global warming
• Effects of global warming
• Global warming
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Iron fertilization
• Kyoto Protocol
• Mitigation of global warming
• Renewable energy
• Sea level change
• Timeline of environmental events
• United Kingdom Climate Change Programme

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References

1. ^ http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/518.htm
2. ^ IPCC TAR SPM figure 3
3. ^ http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/271.htm
4. ^ For additional discussion of feedbacks relevant to ongoing climate change, see http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/260.htm
5. ^ Arctic Change Indicators
6. ^ Bering Sea Climate and Ecosystem Indicators
7. ^ How scientists study climate change: Some important research concepts used by scientists to study climate variations

• Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. K.A. Emanuel, Nature, 436 (2005), pp. 686-688. ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf
• What effects are we seeing now and what is still to come? Calvin Jones "Climate Change: Facts and Impacts"
• Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance (Politics, Science & the Environment (Paperback)), edited by Clark Miller and Paul N. Edwards, MIT Press 2001
• The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago, Ruddiman WF; Climatic Change, 61 (3): 261-293 Dec 2003
• William F. Ruddiman (2005), Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate, Princeton University Press
• A test of the overdue-glaciation hypothesis, William F. Ruddiman, Stephen J. Vavrus, John E. Kutzbach, Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1­1
• A note on the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation, Schmidt, GA, Shindel, DT and Harder, S; GRL v31 L23206, 16 December 2004.

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External links

• EU climate change website.
• David Suzuki Foundation website detailing the potential impacts of and the solutions to climate change.
• Climate Change College
• ClimateArk: Portal and Search Engine dedicated to promoting public policy that addresses global climate change.
• Climate Change Information from the Ocean & Climate Change Institute, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• IPCC Third Assessment Report published in 2001 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
• Arctic Change: Near realtime status of Arctic climate and ecosystem
• Bering Sea: Status of the Bering Sea climate and ecosystem
• LADSS at The Macaulay Institute: Climate Change and Agriculture: Are we asking the right questions?
• A Brief Introduction to History of Climate, an excellent overview by Prof. Richard A. Muller of UC Berkeley.
• NASA Global Change Master Directory: A directory of Earth science data
• Congressional Research Service (CRS) Reports regarding Climate change
• Open Democracy Climate Change: Article series by scientists, activists and others, and global debate on the politics
• Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK
• Climate Change Chronicles: News and information on climate change, alternative energy, global warming and energy efficiency
• Evert Wesker An overview of climate change, theories and perspectives, and notable weather patterns.
• Everything you wanted to know about climate change — Provided by New Scientist.
• Guardian Unlimited - Special Report: Climate Change ongoing coverage by Guardian Unlimited
• RealClimate: Climate Science: commentary site working climate scientists for the public and journalists.
• Climate Change Futures Report by The Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School
• NAS: National Academy of Sciences: Understanding and Responding to Climate change, Overview (PDF).
• Introduction to climate change: Lecture notes for meteorologists: World Meteorological Organization (PDF).
• Climate change and global warming - WWF (conservation organization).
• United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP): Climate Change Page
• Scienceagogo: accessibly-written journalistic presentations of scientific climate change studies and results.
• Global Warming article on Sourcewatch
• Scientific assessment: Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Summary of major international climatological conference.
• Global Change by the Pacific Institute
• Climate Change Dossier from SciDev.Net
• Newest reports on US EPA website
• U.S. Environmental Protrection Agency, Global Warming - Actions
• The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Calculator
• The UN Climate Change Secretariat
• Greenpeace International - Action
• Hans von Storch and Nico Stehr (2002) Towards a History of Ideas on Anthropogenic Climate Change, (PDF) [1]
• IPS Inter Press Service - Independent news about climate change and its consequences

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BBC articles

• BBC: 2004 Climate Change Feature
• BBC - Earth - melting in the heat?
• BBC - Greenhouse gases 'do warm oceans'
• BBC - Europe study shows climate risks
• BBC - 'Gas muzzlers' challenge Bush
• BBC - Climate Change Experiment

Marion King Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory

Hubbert peak theory

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A bell-shaped production curve, as suggested by M. King Hubbert in 1956.

2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Union

The Hubbert Peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of oil production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. Early in the curve (pre-peak), production increases due to the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.

"Peak Oil" as a proper noun, also known as Hubbert's peak, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth will enter a terminal decline. The theory is named after American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, who created a model of known oil reserves, and proposed, in a paper he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956 [3], that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States between 1965 and 1970, and worldwide within "about half a century" from publication.

When the global peak will occur is a controversial issue. Production peaks are difficult to predict, and generally the only reliable way to identify the timing of any production peak, including the global peak, is in retrospect. United States oil production peaked in 1971 [4]. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1962 [5]. Some estimates for the date of worldwide peak in oil production, made by Hubbert and others, have already passed. Estimates for the date of Peak Oil range from 2005 to dates after 2025.

Some industrialized countries are currently highly dependent on oil. Opinions on the effects of Hubbert's peak, and the subsequent terminal decline of global oil production, range from predictions that the market economy will develop alternatives to oil and decrease oil dependence in modern economies, to doomsday scenarios of global economic meltdown and societal collapse.

Hubbert's theory

The standard Hubbert curve. For applications, the x and y scales are replaced by time and production scales.

A clear example of hubbert theory applying on Norway's production‎

In 1956, Hubbert proposed that crude oil production in a given region over time would follow a bell-shaped curve without giving a precise formula; he later used the Hubbert curve, the derivative of the logistic curve, for estimating future production.

Hubbert assumed that after oil reserves are discovered, oil production at first increases approximately exponentially, as wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and oil production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.

The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the oil that will ultimately be produced has been. It also has a single peak.

Given past oil production data, a Hubbert curve may be constructed that attempts to approximate past data, and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production and the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way.

The standard Hubbert curve is a real-valued function of one real variable; in order to apply it to the real world, scales have to be chosen, one for time and one for oil production, based on the observed data. They are usually given implicitly by specifying the integral of the Hubbert curve, the ultimate total oil production Q_∞, with a unit of billions of barrels, and the initial growth rate asymptotically reached for very early times, a, often expressed in percent per year.

Hubbert also proposed a method for determining the values for Q_∞ and a based on empirical data, by considering the ratio of production at a given time and cumulative production to that point as a function not of time but of the cumulative production itself; if production followed a Hubbert curve, this function would have the form , a straight line. Thus, by considering the best linear fit to the function actually observed, estimates for a and Q_∞ can be obtained.

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Use of multiples curves

, the use of multiple curves instead of one can better model the behavior of diverse systems. In US oil production, Hubbert dealt with a large sampleset that wasn't very politically constrained. How discovery of new resources should be added to a Hubbert curve, and whether they were accounted for in the first place, is always controvertial, but it's intuitively warranted in certain circumstances. Timber production by European powers, for example, would follow its own curves for most of history, followed by the addition of new curves as colonialism took off. [6]

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Peak prediction

In 2004, ASPO predicted that conventional plus unconventional oil production would peak around 2007.

The Energy Information Administration predicts no peak in consumption before at least 2025. Source: International Energy Outlook 2004. The International Energy Agency makes a similar projection

In 1974, Hubbert projected that global oil production would peak in 1995 "if current trends continue" [7] (i.e., 2% growth in consumption per year)[8]. However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift to energy efficient cars, the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating, etc), then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s (see graphics on right). The shift to reduced consumption in these areas meant that the projection assumptions were not realized and, hence, oil production did not peak in 1995.

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has calculated that the annual production peak of conventional crude oil was in early 2004. During 2004, approximately 24 billion barrels of conventional oil was produced out of the total of 30 billion barrels of oil; the remaining 6 billion barrels coming from heavy oil and tar sands, deep water oil fields, and natural gas liquids (see adjacent ASPO graph). In 2005, the ASPO revised its prediction for the peak in world oil production, from both conventional and nonconventional sources, to the year 2010[9]. Natural gas is expected to peak anywhere from 2010 to 2020 (Bentley, 2002).

In 2004, 30 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Huge, easily exploitable oil fields are most likely a thing of the past. In August 2005, the International Energy Agency reported annual global demand at 84.9 million barrels per day (mbd) which means over 31 billion barrels annually. This means consumption is now within 2 mbd of production. At any one time there are about 54 days of stock in the OECD system plus 37 days in emergency stockpiles.

The United States Geological Survey claimed at one time that there are enough petroleum reserves to continue current production rates for 50 to 100 years[10]. That is countered by an important Saudi oil industry insider who says the American government's forecast for future oil supply is a "dangerous over-estimate."[11] Campbell argues that the USGS estimates are methodologically flawed (although he does not claim to be an expert in probability theory)[12]. One problem, for example, is that OPEC countries overestimate their reserves to get higher oil quotas and to avoid internal critique. Population and economic growth will almost certainly lead to increased energy consumption in the future.

According to the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy, "adjustments to the USGS and MMS estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels. [emphasis added]" (Annual Energy Outlook 1998 With Projections to 2020[13]). [This is misquoted; the quoted part is not preceded by "international reserve", and does not make a statement about international reserve estimates.]

Professor Kenneth Deffeyes, author of "Hubbert's Peak" (ISBN 0-691-11625-3) and "Beyond Oil" (ISBN 0-8090-2956-1), asserts that the peak was passed on Dec 16, 2005 [14]. He also asserts that the total of world oil is 2.013 trillion barrels.

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Has it happened already?

World oil supply.[2] Source: IEA

World Oil Supply 2002-2006 Q2. Source: Multiple tables from IEA

World Crude Oil Production 1960-2004. Sources: DOE/EIA, IEA

Chevron states that "oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries". [15] Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks.

World oil production growth trends, in the short term, have been decreasing over the last 18 months. Average yearly gains in world oil production from 1987 to 2005 were 1.2MB/day (1.7%). Global production averaged 84.4 MB/day in 2005, up only 0.2 MB/day (0.2%) from 84.2MB/day in Q4 2004 (see figure at right). Production in Q2 2006 was 85.1MB/day, up 0.4MB/day (0.47%) from the same period a year earlier [16]. Yearly gains in the last 8 years ranged from -1.4MB/day (-1.9%; 1998-1999) to 3.3MB/day (4.1%; 2003-2004)[17].

Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) has suggested that the global production of conventional oil peaked in the spring of 2004 albeit at a rate of 23-GB/yr, not Hubbert's 13-GB/yr. Another peak oil proponent Kenneth S. Deffeyes predicted in his book Beyond Oil - The View From Hubbert's Peak that global oil production would hit a peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005 (Deffeyes has since revised his claim, and now argues that world oil production peaked on December 16 2005[18]). Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens has stated that worldwide conventional oil production will top out at 85MB/day.[19]

Of the three largest oil fields in the world, two have peaked. Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March, 2006, as did the huge Burgan field in Kuwait in November, 2005. Due to past overproduction, Cantarell is now declining rapidly, at a rate of -13% year over year. [20] In April, 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year, and its composite decline rate of producing fields is about 2%[21], thus implying that Ghawar, the largest oil field in the world may have peaked.

Chevron has launched the Will You Join Us? [22] campaign, seeking to alert the public to the possibility of petroleum depletion and encourage discussion. The campaign's website notes findings from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2004: "Fossil fuels currently supply most of the world’s energy, and are expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. While supplies are currently abundant, they won’t last forever."

Traditional natural gas supplies are also under the constraints of production peaks, which especially affect specific geographic regions because of the difficulty of transporting the resource over long distances. Natural gas production may have peaked on the North American continent in 2003, with the possible exception of Alaskan gas supplies which cannot be developed until a pipeline is constructed. Natural gas production in the North Sea has also peaked. UK production was at its highest point in 2000, and declining production and increased prices are now a sensitive political issue there. Even if new extraction techniques yield additional sources of natural gas, like coalbed methane, the energy returned on energy invested will be much lower than traditional gas sources, which inevitably leads to higher costs to consumers of natural gas.

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Mitigation

Peak Oil on a license plate of a hybrid car driving past a wind turbine

Mitigation efforts attempt to prevent hazards from developing into disasters altogether, or to reduce the effects of disasters when they occur.

Most oil consumption comes from transportation, 68% in America [23], and there are many forms of transportation that do not require oil or require much less than the standard automobile. Today, these include the application of biofuels, high mpg hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Solar- or hydrogen- powered demonstration vehicles have also been designed and developed as pilot projects or for engineering school competition. Because America uses 1 in 4 barrels of global oil consumed [24] [25] and uses 68% for transportation, it uses 17% of global oil consumption for transportation and is potentially the largest market for any new type of vehicle.

More comprehensive mitigations include better land use planning through Smart growth to reduce transportation inducements, increased capacity and use of mass transit, vanpooling and carpooling, and human powered transport from current levels [26]. Rationing is also a form of mitigation - see [27] for driving ban schemes and a list of policies and their oil savings in table E-1.

Since mitigation affects the price of oil and the economy it is very important in calculating the timing and shape of a peak. Conversely the shape of the peak^[1] affects mitigation efforts. Key questions for mitigation are the viability of solutions such as alternative fuel cars, the roles of government and private sector [28] [29], and how early the switch to these technologies would have to be in order to maintain the lifestyle of a country or even prevent changes to the Earth's carrying capacity.

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Alternative sources for oil

Alternatives are energy sources other than conventional oil and natural gas which can be used instead in one or more applications, such as:

• a prime energy source to generate electricity
• a transportation fuel
• for space heating
• for water heating
• an ingredient in plastics, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and fertilizers
• a lubricant in industrial machinery and manufacturing.

Popular alternatives include

• ethanol
• biodiesel
• tar sands
• oil shale
• coal liquefaction
• gasification
• renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, tidal, geothermal, wave, ocean thermal)
• nuclear energy (fission or fusion).

One near-term alternative source of liquid fuel is the Athabasca Tar Sands in Alberta, Canada. Production from this source is around 1 million bbl/day as of 2006, and is expected to build up to 3.2 million bbl/day by 2015. Higher oil prices have overcome the high costs of extracting heavy oil from this source. The current extraction process, however, requires large inputs of scarce natural gas and fresh water. The figure for recoverable reserves from this source is currently (mid 2006) around 180 billion barrels (cf. the Saudi Arabian reserve of about 260 billion barrels of conventional oil). A similar field, the Orinoco tar sands in Venezuela, is also being exploited. These two are the largest known fields of tar (i.e., bitumen) sands.

Synthetic fuel, created via coal liquefaction, requires no engine modifications for use in standard automobiles. As a byproduct of oil embargos during Apartheid in South Africa, Sasol, using the Fischer-Tropsch process, developed relatively low-cost coal-based fuel. Currently, over 50% of fuel (mostly diesel) used by automobiles in South Africa is produced from coal. With crude-oil prices currently around $75 per barrel, this process is now cost-effective; however the process emits large amounts of carbon dioxide, thus contributing substantially to global warming.

Depending on when global oil production peaks, these alternatives may not yet be commercially available or scalable to replace conventional oil. Promoting conservation and improved efficiency are seen as the easiest and least expensive courses of action to deal with rising prices of scarce oil and natural gas. Modern diesel and hybrid vehicles use off-the-shelf technology and achieve superior fuel efficiency over traditional models.

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Energy return on energy investment

When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or EROEI).

Since, for economic reasons, the cheapest and easiest to extract sources of energy are used first, the EROEI decreases over time. Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel-equivalent of energy used in the recovery process. While any source of energy with an EROEI near or below 1.0 would seem futile to exploit, there are special situations when this is not the case. Availability of cheap, but hard to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to using natural gas to fuel steam injection into oil fields. Similarly, natural gas in huge amounts is used to power most Athabasca Tar Sands plants. Cheap natural gas has also led to Ethanol fuel produced with a net EROEI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial because methods to measure EROEI are in debate.

Note that it is important to understand the distinction between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and a barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many sources of energy, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same near-term supply restrictions that oil is. Accordingly, even an oil source with an EROEI of 0.5 can be usefully exploited if the energy required to produce that oil comes from a cheap and plentiful energy source.

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Implications of a world peak

Gas coupon printed but not used in 1979's oil crisis

Oil depletion scenarios

According to the Hirsch report prepared for the U.S. Dept. of Energy, a global decline in oil production will have serious social and economic implications without due preparation. Peak Oil theorists argue that global economic growth relies on cheap energy[30], and oil contributes significantly to the worldwide energy pool, particularly for transportation. A decline in energy supply might slow or even reverse growth; however, it must be noted that the world economy has continued to grow despite multi-year drops in total energy consumption. For example, from 1979 through 1983, total world energy consumption dropped by 3%, including a 14.8% drop in oil consumption[31], yet world GDP growth for that 5-year period was still about 2.5% per year[32].

Initially a peak in oil production would manifest itself as rapidly escalating prices and a worldwide oil shortage. This shortage would differ from shortages of the past because the fundamental cause would be geological, not political. While past shortages stemmed from a temporary insufficiency of supply, crossing Hubbert's Peak means that the production of oil continues to decline, so demand must be reduced to meet supply. The effects of such a shortage depend on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of alternatives. If alternatives are not forthcoming, then the many products and services produced with oil become scarcer, leading to lower living standards in all countries. Scenarios range from doomsday scenarios to no noticeable problems thanks to new technologies. In order to deal with potential problems from peak oil, Colin Campbell has proposed the Rimini protocol.

It is unlikely that the actual peak in global oil production will be a direct catalyst of global economic decline. Instead, economic turbulence could be precipitated by the realization of the financial and investment world that "peak oil" (and natural gas) is either imminent or has already occurred. Significant indications of economic volatility have manifested themselves in the largest increase in inflation rates in 15 years (Sept. 2005), due mostly to higher energy costs. Since natural gas is the single largest feedstock used to produce fertilizers, an increase in natural gas prices could provide upward pressure on food costs, in addition to the increase in the transportation component of food prices.

These possible impacts of peaking oil, exacerbated by global competition over scarce remaining oil supplies, have led some analysts to predict dire consequences for conventional oil-dependent economies. According to oil industry analyst Jan Lundberg, "Based on today's intensifying trends, warning signs and an understanding of history, one must be ready to see the fossil-fueled phase come to an end most abruptly. When common practices cannot be maintained and too many people suddenly begin hoarding scant supplies, the desired resource dries up. This causes ramifications that quickly compound whatever triggered the crisis." This scenario is referred to by Lundberg as Petrocollapse. Contrasting views note that most uses of oil, from plastics to transportation fuels, have substitutes, blunting the impact of declining petroleum supplies.

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Current events pertaining to oil production

In late 2005 as oil prices rose, greater attention was focused on Hubbert's theory and its potential implications. While Hubbert himself is still not widely known, debates and discussions about rising fuel prices have become commonplace in the media and elsewhere almost everywhere in the world. However, oil and gas prices are notoriously volatile and price increases have been caused by numerous other factors, though there is a general agreement that increased demand has been the major factor, with such increased demand bringing the Hubbert peak closer than would have been predicted otherwise. In June 2005, OPEC admitted that they would 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year. The summer and winter of 2005 brought oil prices to a new high (not adjusted for inflation). This may be a sign of increasing demand having started to outstrip supply or it may just be that the various geopolitical forces in the regions where oil is produced are limiting the available supply. One other explanation for the rising oil prices is that it has been a sign of too much paper money and not too little oil. In this view, dramatically higher prices of all commodities and real estate indicates rising inflation.

The Burgan Field, Kuwait's largest oil field, peaked in November 2005 [33]. In March 2006, Fernado Canales, the Energy Secretary of Mexico, announced that Mexico's giant Cantarell Field peaked in 2005 [34]. Burgan and Cantarell are among the largest fields in the world. Only Saudi Arabia's Ghawar is larger and it may have entered depletion in 2006 [35].

As awareness of Peak Oil increases, there are also a number of events being organized to allow for further education and discussion. For example, the Third U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solution [36] was announced for September 2006 in Yellow Springs, Ohio.

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Critique

Economist Michael Lynch[37] argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is overly simplistic, and that available evidence contradicts some of the more specific predictions.[38]

Critics such as Leonardo Maugeri, vice president for the Italian energy company ENI, point out that Hubbert peak supporters such as Campbell previously predicted a peak in global oil production in both 1989 and 1995[39], based on oil production data available at that time. Maugeri claims that nearly all of the estimates do not take into account non-conventional oil even though the availability of these resources is (supposedly) huge and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling due to improved technology. Furthermore, he notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today due to new technology and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003. These improvements occurred even with low investment in new exploration and upgrading technology due to the low oil prices during the last 20 years.

More generally, the supply of oil may be somewhat elastic in both the short term and the long term. Higher prices may encourage greater production and the use of more expensive extraction approaches. Over time, the current higher oil prices may well cause increased investment. However, absent added reserves or alternative sources, this may only delay the peak, rather than eliminating the peak altogether, and accelerate the depletion of reserves.

Proponents of "abiotic oil", often referred to or dismissed as a "fringe theory" believed by virtually no notable U.S. geologists, are skeptical of any statistical analyses containing as a given the nonrenewable "fossil" origin theories of petroleum. This Abiogenic Theory, also called the Abiotic Theory, or the Russian-Ukrainian Theory--that not all oil is fossilized bio matter, but occurs through other geologic processes, and thus is not so severely limited in supply--is believed to be true by many geologists in Russia and the Ukraine.

Part of the current debate revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing energy conservation, fuel efficiency, and alternative energy sources like solar or nuclear power. Campbell's critics, such as Michael Lynch and Freddy Hutter, claim that his research data is sloppy. They point to the date of the coming peak, which was initially projected to occur by 2000, but has now been pushed back to 2010, and note that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates[40]. However, Campbell and his supporters insist that when the peak occurs is not as important as the realization that the peak is coming. Throughout 2001-2003, in his monthly newsletters, Campbell maintained that his 1996 prediction of a peak in 2000 was unchallenged, despite Hutter's alerts of increasing production levels. Finally in his April 2004 Newsletter, Campbell relented and shifted the peak to 2010. Later this was brought forward to 2007 but in October 2005, was shifted back to 2010. These shifts between predicted dates occur because of the systemic lack of accurate oil reserve data--with no truly accurate data we will not know when the peak occurs.

Another controversy was the status of the Hubbert Peak of conventional oil. Hutter claimed throughout 2004 that Campbell's own data illustrated that the Peak had passed unceremoniously in the Spring of 2004. The ASPO Newsletter continued to show the extraction peak in 2005 and/or 2006. Finally in August of 2005, Campbell again relented and began publishing that indeed the Peak had passed in 2004.

Further, the scenarios constructed by peak oil proponents are said to fail to consider the potential of backstop technologies such as ethanol-based fuels, coal liquefaction, gas-to-liquids (GTL) and other substitutes for crude oil. Coal liquefaction in particular becomes economically feasible, according to some estimates, at a sustained oil price of $32/barrel[41]—a price less than half the market price as of March 2006. Peak oil proponents argue that such technologies are much more costly and polluting than conventional oil and that they cannot be produced in sufficient quantity to replace rapidly declining post-peak supplies of conventional oil.

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Hubbert peak for Gas

Because gas transport is a complicated operation,the global peak of gas is less important than the peak per continent.The North American peak happened in 2001, according to Western Gas Resources Inc; according to Doug Reynolds, the peak will occur in 2007 [42]; according to Bently, production will peak anywhere from 2010 to 2020 (Bentley, 2002).

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Longterm Hubbert peaks

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Coal

Peak is still very far,but we can observe the example of anthracite in the USA, a hie grade coal, that has peaked in the 1920's.

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References

• 1. ^ The Shape of World Oil Peaking: Learning From Experience by Robert L. Hirsch [1]
• "Feature on United States oil production." (November, 2002) ASPO Newsletter #23.

• Bentley, R.W. (2002). Global oil & gas depletion: an overview. Energy Policy 30, 189–205

• Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050 ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, October

• Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions (August 30, 2004). Middle East Economic Survey VOL. XLVII No 35

• Hubbert, M.K. (1956). Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956, text version.

• Hubbert, M.K. (1982). Techniques of Prediction as Applied to Production of Oil and Gas, US Department of Commerce, NBS Special Publication 631, May 1982

• Maugeri, L. (2004). Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over. Science 304, 1114-1115

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See also

Global fossil carbon emissions, an indicator of consumption, for 1800-2000. Total is black. Oil is in blue.

Prediction

• Matthew Simmons
• Oil reserves
• Abiotic oil
• Hirsch report
• Ehrlich-Simon bet
• Energy conservation
• Energy crisis
• Olduvai theory
• Limits to Growth
• Global strategic petroleum reserves

Economics

• Gross domestic product per barrel
• 1973 energy crisis
• 1979 energy crisis
• 1990 spike in the price of oil
• Oil price increases of 2004-2006
• Petrodollar
• OPEC
• Iranian Oil Bourse
• Biophysical economics

Technology

• Energy conservation
• Energy efficiency
• Energy development
• Fuel economy
• Renewable energy
• Tar sands
• Fischer-Tropsch process
• Karrick process
• Future energy development
• Soft energy path

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Books

Michael C. Ruppert, Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil

• Colin J. Campbell, (Head, Association for Peak Oil)
  • Campbell, Colin J. (2004). The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-19-6.
  • Campbell, Colin J. (2004). The Coming Oil Crisis. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-11-0.
  • Campbell, Colin J. (2005). Oil Crisis. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-39-0.
• Kenneth S. Deffeyes, (petroleum geologist)
  • Deffeyes, Kenneth S. (2002). Hubbert's Peak:The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton Universitiy Press. ISBN 0-691-09086-6.
  • Deffeyes, Kenneth S. (2005). Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak. Hill and Wang. ISBN 0-8090-2956-1.
• Goodstein, David (2005). Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil. W. W. Norton. ISBN 0-393-05857-3.
• Richard Heinberg, (writer on ecology)
  • Heinberg, Richard (2003). The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-482-7.
  • Heinberg, Richard (2004). Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-510-6. (The gloom and doom scenario)
• Huber, Peter (2005). The Bottomless Well. Basic Books. ISBN 0-465-03116-1. (There will be no oil shortage; the free market will provide.)
• Kleveman, Lutz C. (2004). The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia. Atlantic Monthly Press. ISBN 0-87113-906-5.
• Kunstler, James H. (2005). The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes. Atlantic Monthly Press. ISBN 0-87113-888-3.
• Lovins, Amory et al (2005). Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profit, Jobs and Security. Rocky Mountain Institute. ISBN 1-881071-10-3. (The "small is beautiful" view)
• Pfeiffer, Dale Allen (2004). The End of the Oil Age. Lulu Press. ISBN 1-4116-0629-9.
• Ahmed Rashid, (Pakistani journalist)
  • Rashid, Ahmed (2001). Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-08902-3.
  • Rashid, Ahmed (2003). Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia. Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-09345-4.
• Rifkin, Jeremy (2002). The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-Cell-Driven Global Hydrogen Web. Blackwell Publishers. ISBN 0-7456-3042-1. (Politically influential work; vague on where the hydrogen comes from)
• Simmons, Matthew R. (2005). Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. ISBN 0-471-73876-X.
• Shah, Sonia (2004). Crude, The Story of Oil. Seven Stories Press. ISBN 1-58322-625-7.
• Simon, Julian L. (1998). The Ultimate Resource. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-00381-5. (The "ultimate resource" is innovation, not oil)
• Smil, Vaclav (2005). Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-19492-9.
• Tertzakian, Peter (2006). A Thousand Barrels a Second. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-146874-9.
• Yeomans, Matthew (2004). Oil, Anatomy of an Industry. ISBN 1-56584-885-3.
• Yergin, Daniel (1993). The Prize : The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power. Free Press. ISBN 0-671-79932-0.

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Movies

• The Electric Wallpaper Co. - The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream [43], 2004, 78-minute documentary film
• Global Public Media - Richard Heinberg at the Vancouver Planetarium, 2003 (viewable online)
• Tropos Dokumentar, PEAK OIL-Imposed by Nature,DVD - 2005
• Aerobar Films - "Oilway To Hell", 2005 (viewable online)
• Mad Max, film set in a society that is suffering from a prolonged fuel shortage
• The West Wing episode The Hubbert Peak
• Lava Productions AG - A Crude Awakening
• Documentary 52': The Epic of Black Gold - Part4/4 - The Oil Depletion

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External links

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Sites

• U.S. Energy Information Agency Petroleum Data
• Association for the Study of Peak Oil
• Post Carbon Institute
• Life After the Oil Crash
• Energy Bulletin Peak Oil News
• Global Public Media
• PeakOil.Com Peak Oil News, Analysis, and Mitigation Alternatives
• PeakOilInTheNews.Com Daily news roundup of Peak Oil news from around the world
• The Oil Drum
• Crisis Energética (Spanish language)
• Will You Join Us (Chevron Corporation)
• Global Oil Watch - Extensive Peak Oil Library
• Wolf at the Door Beginner's Guide to Peak Oil

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Articles

• John V. Mitchell (Associate Fellow Chatham House, London): A New Era for Oil Prices; 32 Pages, August 2006
• The Future of Oil from Foreign Policy
• The End of Cheap Oil — Colin Campbell & Jean Laherrère, Scientific American
• International Energy Agency press release
• The End of Oil? — Mark Williams, MIT Technology Review
• The End of Cheap Oil — Tim Appenzeller, National Geographic
• The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources — Michael C. Lynch
• Oil shale back in the picture — Robert E. Snyder
• Will We Run Out of Energy? — Mark Brandly
• El mundo ante el cenit del petróleo Fernando Bullón Miró
• America must end its dependence on oil from the Financial Times, by former national security advisor Robert McFarlane and former director of the CIA James Woolsey
• We Will Never Run Out of Oil (About.com), by Mike Moffatt
• The Price of Gas, Are You Ready to Pay More?, by Paul Skarp
• M. King Hubbert, "Energy from Fossil Fuels", Science, vol. 109, pp. 103-109, February 4, 1949
• Paul Roberts, "Last Stop Gas", Harper's Magazine, August 2004, pp. 71-72
• BBC News: 'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate
• Will the End of Oil Mean the End of America? -- Robert Freeman

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Programs

• Driven by Oil BBC radio series running throughout September 2006

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Reports, essays and lectures

• Roscoe Bartlett explains peak oil in US Congress
• Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet)
• M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth
• Peakoil conference 19-20 October 2004
• graph showing oil production in lower 48 US states following Hubbert's predictions
• Peak Oil presentation by Dr. Campbell, TU Clausthal
• Rep. Prof. Roscoe Bartlett's hour long Peak Oil presentation to (an empty) U.S. House of Representatives
• An Introduction to Peak Oil by Jim Bliss
• David Holmgren talks about Peak Oil and Permaculture (July 28, 2004) [archive.org]
• Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop (2006), National Research Council

Membrane Bioreactor Technology

Safe Water for Everyone: Membrane Bioreactor technology

Experts suggest that membrane bioreactors may be a key to global water sustainability
In the evolution of life on earth, the membrane was essential in that it allowed the formation of cells, and later the compartmentalisation of processes in cells. As humans have learned how to produce more complicated and efficient synthetic membranes, so too have we developed the ability to compartmentalise processes. In this way, membranes can be used to filter cells from for example waste water. If the filtered cells play a role in breaking down additional waste flowing through the membranes, a membrane bioreactor has been created. A membrane bioreactor consists of some biological item or items in association with a membrane. A membrane is a surface that has the ability to let some things through it and will block others.

This article summarises developments in water treatment membrane bioreactors. Within the African context, the article has particular relevance to those involved in the provision of clean water and safer environments. The technologies described allow decentralised water treatment and hence given the size of the continent and the population spread, these technologies may provide answers to many planners.
Article by Francis A. DiGiano et al.

Reuse and decentralization will be essential for meeting human needs for water and sanitation in both developing and developed countries. Membrane bioreactors (MBRs) will be an essential part of advancing such water sustainability, because they encourage water reuse and open up opportunities for decentralized treatment.

These were the conclusions of a Rockefeller Foundation-sponsored Team Residency held at the Bellagio (Italy) Study and Conference Center on April 23-26, 2003. The foundation invited 14 experts on membrane technology, water treatment technologies, and water sustainability from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Australia, Israel, South Africa, and Malaysia to explore the role of MBRs and other membrane processes in achieving sustainable water and sanitation. The foundation periodically brings together up to 14 participants from developed and developing countries to discuss topics of global importance. The format permits structured and unstructured time to explore common ground and forge shared solutions to tough challenges.

Membrane Bioreactors Come of Age

MBRs discussed in this instance combine the activated sludge found in high throughput sewerage treatment plants with membrane filtration (see image below). So, in addition to removing biodegradable organics, suspended solids, and inorganic nutrients (such as nitrogen and phosphorus), MBRs retain particulate and slow-growing organisms (thereby treating more slowly biodegraded organics) and remove a very high percentage of pathogens (thereby reducing chemical disinfection requirements). They also require less space than traditional activated sludge systems because less hydraulic residence time (HRT) is needed to achieve a given solids retention time (SRT). In addition, MBRs are more automated, making them ideal for decentralized treatment because they are simpler to operate.

Description of MBR technology in wastewater treatment

An MBR is a combination of the activated sludge process, a wastewater treatment process characterized by a suspended growth of biomass, with a micro- or ultra-filtration membrane system that rejects particles. The membrane system replaces the traditional gravity sedimentation unit (clarifier) in the activated sludge process. The turbidity and suspended solids concentration of the effluent is far lower than in conventional treatment. All biomass is retained and becomes returned activated sludge. Biological growth leaves the system as waste activated sludge. The figure shows an immersed MBR that is market by several vendors with various proprietary features.

We base the readiness of MBR technology on the following reasons:
- The engineering principles underlying MBRs are familiar enough to ensure reliability. Because MBRs combine two familiar technologies - activated sludge and membrane filtration - significant engineering expertise can be applied to MBR design and operation. Several studies already have applied activated-sludge-related biology to MBRs, although current investigations suggest potentially important differences in growth, population diversity, cell activity, and competition. One obvious difference is that MBR membranes have to be cleaned periodically to minimize biological and chemical fouling, and MBR manufacturers are developing cleaning methods.
- MBRs have been used in enough applications to verify successful performance and identify critical design and operating factors. MBRs have been used to treat a wide range of municipal and industrial wastewaters, and currently are installed at more than 1000 sites in Asia, Europe, and North America, according to a database assembled by the Water Environment Research Foundation. Most currently treat a few hundred m3/d (the largest treats less than 40,000 m3/d). But plans are underway to build MBRs that will treat 30,000 to 150,000 m3/d, and the technology could be used to treat 300,000 to 800,000 m3/d, according to an assessment by a major consulting engineering firm.
· Enough reliable equipment and technological support are commercially available to meet existing and developing demand. Membrane-manufacturing capacity is expanding, so unit costs are declining. The long-term trend is a "virtuous cycle" in which declining costs spur more demand, which spurs further cost reductions.
Water Sustainability and the Role of MBRs

Water sustainability requires a holistic approach to water management, one that emphasizes decentralized systems to encourage water reuse, while providing safe water to those currently unserved or underserved in developing countries. Overall, MBRs meet the water sustainability criteria, but several important improvements still are needed (see table below).

For example, although the cost of membrane processes has dropped by up to 30-fold since 1990, economic sustainability is rated as "improvement needed." Future cost reductions should come from continued technical improvements and the benefits of a growing demand for membrane production. MBRs have not been in operation long enough to have data on membrane life, so this cost is unknown; reducing water flux may increase membrane life, but it will increase the capital cost. Affordability also depends on institutional and government policies, which could include rebates or subsidies as incentives to reuse water in order to reduce freshwater demands.

Sustainability Criteria for MBR Technology

Environmental sustainability.
Although MBRs received a "good now" rating for most environmental sustainability indicators - effluent water quality and optimal water, nutrients, and land use - improvements are needed in the system's chemical and energy use. Since MBRs primarily use chemicals and energy to control fouling found that two-thirds of the energy used in municipal MBRs is needed to generate crossflow from air sparging to control fouling], a better understanding of the fouling process might reduce their use. For example, Guibert and team found that intermittent and cyclic aeration with submerged hollow fibers reduced the air-sparging demand (and related energy use) by about 50%. Also, an anaerobic MBR could be a net energy producer due to biogas generation. MBRs also may be more sustainable than conventional activated sludge systems when considering biosolids volumes and effluent levels of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants, but more research is needed to confirm these effects.

Technical sustainability.
MBRs also received a "good now" rating for most technical sustainability indicators, except ease of use. Experience suggests that membrane capacity and life can be optimized by appropriate preliminary treatment, especially removing fibrous material (such as hair) using screens with openings of 2 mm or less. However, the quantity and noxious nature of such screenings are problematic for most operations, and a proper balance has not yet been established between screening's advantages and disadvantages in MBR-based treatment facilities.

Another important unresolved technical issue is the optimum mixed-liquor suspended solids (MLSS) concentration that allows for acceptably high water flux and small reactor footprint, without reducing oxygen transfer so much that it limits reactor size. MLSS concentration is controlled by biomass retention time, which in turn determines biomass withdrawal volumes and the energy and costs related to treating and disposing of waste activated sludge.

Also, while rated "good now," reliability could be improved by reducing the failure rate of individual components and the need for redundancy. On-line testing (such as pressure decay tests and particle counting) is the preferred option for monitoring performance to ensure reliability. To make on-line monitoring feasible for small, decentralized facilities, test systems must be inexpensive and reliable, and their outputs must be relayed telemetrically to a centralized facility that can deploy trained technicians.

Socio-Cultural Sustainability.
MBRs received "improvement needed" ratings for all three socio-cultural sustainability indicators, which are difficult to quantify and thus, overlooked. "Institutional requirements" has to do with local standards and regulations for wastewater treatment, discharge, and reuse. The acceptance of water reuse and novel sanitation methods depends on culture and facility management. Other indicators have to do with implementation issues, like the availability of technical expertise and ability to accept responsibility for operations at a more centralized level.
MBRs in Decentralized Wastewater Reuse

Lately, researchers have been noting the advantages of decentralized treatment systems over centralized ones in achieving water sustainability. The perceived benefits include less need for major infrastructure development and/or maintenance; potentially lower costs; less discharge to receiving waters; and more opportunities for water reuse because the reclaimed water is locally available and the pathogen risk is lower.

In theory, decentralized systems can be used for a single dwelling, housing cluster, subdivision, or a satellite development, but the smallest practical scale may be housing clusters. MBRs can provide significant opportunities for reuse in a decentralized wastewater management system (see image below). In decentralized water management, valuable resources in wastewater - water, nutrients, and the organic material's energy content - are "mined" and reused close to their point of generation. The water can be reused safely to flush toilets, to irrigate landscapes, in various industrial processes, and to extinguish fires. Nutrients can be reused via irrigation, and the extracted energy can be used to generate heat and electricity.
Wastewater Reuse in Decentralized MBR Systems

MBRs provide a reliable, high-quality, reusable effluent. For example, its particle-free effluent allows more effective post-disinfection, as required before reuse. Moreover, MBRs provide excellent pretreatment when reverse osmosis (RO) is needed to generate very high-quality reclaimed water. MBRs may also remove fouling fractions of organic matter more effectively than microfiltration prior to RO.

However, effective decentralized wastewater management systems will depend on the technical resources of a centralized authority, including monitoring, maintenance, and technical service. Ideally, each decentralized system's performance would be monitored by a centralized service provider whose technical staff can respond rapidly to local needs.
Membrane Technology in Developing Countries

The United Nations' Millenium Goals and the Johannesburg Earth Summit's findings (see table below) define the challenge for sustainable sanitation services in developing countries. Improvements in wastewater management are inextricably linked with the desperate need to provide safe drinking water to those currently unserved or underserved.
The Challenge for Sustainable Sanitation Services in
Developing Countries

* Half of the world's people (about 3 billion) live on less than US$1 per day;
* About 800 million people lack access to health care;
* About 10 million children under 5 years died in 1999, mostly from preventable diseases;
* In 2002, an estimated 1.1 billion people lacked access to a safe water supply and 2.4 billion to improved sanitation;
* Africa has 38% of its population unserved by safe water and 40% by sanitation, the figures for Asia are 19% and 52%, and 15% and 22% for Latin America and Caribbean;
* Over the next 25 years, the urban populations of Africa and Asia will almost double; the urban populations of Latin American and the Caribbean will increase by nearly 50%;
* Delegates to the 2002 Johannesburg Summit agreed to cut in half the proportion of people without basic sanitation; this means providing sanitation to 2 billion more people;
* The provision of full water and wastewater connections and primary wastewater treatment to the urban population would entail an annual cost of US$ 17 billion for water and US$32 billion for sanitation. To serve 2 billion more people by 2015 will require connections for more than 350,000 individuals each year;
* The recent Third World Water Forum highlighted the fact that there are a further 3 billion people who only use pit toilets, flush toilets, or sewers without any treatment before discharge to the environment (World Water Forum, Rich Nations Get Wealth by Polluting Poor Nations, 17th March, Kyoto, 2003)

The magnitude of the problem cannot be understated: In 2000, an estimated 1.1 billion people lacked access to safe drinking water and 2.4 billion to adequate sanitation. Put another way, 40% of Africa's people, 19% of Asia's people, and 15% of Latin America's and the Caribbean's people lack access to safe water, and 40% of Africa's people, 52% of Asia's people, and 22% of Latin America's and the Caribbean's people lack adequate sanitation. Meanwhile, the urban populations of Africa and Asia are expected to nearly double in 25 years, while those of Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to increase by 50%.

At present, the use of membranes to meet this demand is limited to a few research and development projects. In order to achieve the Millennium Goals, membrane technologies will have to effectively address the following issues:

* the per capita water demand will be small (on the order of 25 L/person/d);
* most poor people will be in dense, periurban settlements;
* local water sources will be contaminated with faecal matter and turbidity;
* urban water will receive uncontrolled industrial effluent discharges;
* membrane system concentrates will be discharged locally;
* electrical supply will be scarce and intermittent;
* local technical support will be a challenge;
* low pressure, low energy systems will be preferred;
* local sources of indigenous flocculants, chelating agents, and enzyme cleaning chemicals need to be developed; and
* modular systems will best suit the dispersed need.

A "first cut" analysis of membrane technology's potential use in a developing country can be generated using two important statistics: the human development index (HDI) and the water resources per capita. Countries with a high HDI (greater affordability) and low water resources per capita (greater need) may be ideal candidates for MBRs in order to promote water conservation and reuse. Those with both high HDI and water resources per capita may find MBRs better protect their abundant water resources. Low HDI countries obviously will need financial assistance but still are entitled to clean water and public health protection. In these countries, decentralized MBRs in dense urban settlements would reduce sewer requirements, encourage local agricultural reuse, and eliminate the need for chlorine disinfection.

Water sustainability is a critical issue in developing countries. In the Triple Bottom Line, J. Elkington urges that projects in these areas be socially responsible, environmentally sound, and economically viable. Membrane technology may be effective here, but its utility or service needs to be assessed holistically to avoid repeating the mistakes many nongovernmental organizations have made in developed countries.
The Bellagio Framework

Attaining water sustainability will require commitment from policy makers, planners, funding agencies, educators, implementing agencies, and technology providers. The need is urgent. MBRs can help achieve water sustainability and prevent unnecessary human misery.

MBR Technology

Population growth, rapid urbanization, and finite water resources lead to human misery, including catastrophes that can affect all of humankind. Today, water management responds too slowly to needs and is unsustainable; water institutions are falling further behind, not making gains toward water sustainability.

Due to plummeting costs and dramatically improving performance, water-treatment applications based on membranes are blossoming. In particular, Membrane Bioreactors (MBRs) are today robust, simple to operate, and ever more affordable. They take up little space, need modest technical support, and can remove many contaminants in one step. These advantages make it practical, for the first time, to protect public health and safely reuse water for non-potable uses. Membranes also can be a component of a multi-barrier approach to supplement potable water resources. Finally, decentralization, which overcomes some of the sustainability limits of centralized systems, becomes more feasible with membrane treatment. Because membrane processes make sanitation, reuse, and decentralization possible, water sustainability can become an achievable goal for the developed and developing worlds.

Attaining water sustainability will require commitment and a holistic approach from policy makers, planners, funding agencies, educators, implementing agencies, and technology providers - all those concerned with economic, environmental, technical, and social/cultural aspects of development. The need is urgent, but an enabling technology for preventing unnecessary human misery and achieving water sustainability is ready.

The Bellagio International Residency Team recommends that all the stakeholders accelerate the development and use of membrane technology.

Industrial Ecology/Symbiosis

What is Industrial Symbiosis? -- From NISP Website

Industrial symbiosis, as part of the emerging field of industrial ecology, requires attention to the flow of materials and energy through local, regional and national economies.

It engages traditionally separate industries and other organisations in a collective approach to add competitive advantage involving physical exchange of materials, energy, water and/or by-products together with collaboration on the shared use of assets, logistics and expertise.

The keys to industrial symbiosis are collaboration, the synergistic possibilities offered by relative geographical proximity and a demand led approach. -- Definition modified by Dr Marian Chertow (2000, Yale University)

Historically, it was considered that for industrial symbiosis to work effectively the companies involved must be linked by close geographic proximity. This is no longer the case; although low value/grade materials and heat are restricted by proximity constraints, higher value synergies have no such restrictions.

Another misconception is that industrial symbiosis creates synergies involving a simple bi-lateral movement of materials, water and energy. In reality, the process can be much more complex; by having a regionally delivered but linked national programme, business problems identified in one region can have solutions developed in a second and benefits delivered in a third.

What all synergies have in common, is that they generate cost reductions and new sales for the companies involved, as well as creating significant environmental benefits such as reduced landfill and greenhouse gases. The economic activity generated also has further social benefits with the creation of new businesses and jobs.

What is Industrial Ecology? -- From Maurice F. Strong, NAE, Symposium on Technology and Sustainable Development, 1993

The new industrial revolution will be driven by the full integration of environmental concern into our economic life. It will involve the reshaping of our entire industrial system in which efficiency in the use of materials and energy and in recycling and disposing of waste will be the key to success in both environmental and economic terms.

The current environmental focus of industry, government, and the public is on improving the environmental performance of industrial processes and the environmental attributes of products. The goal is to avoid environmental problems locally, regionally, and globally by improving the environmental efficiency of interacting production and consumption activities. Specific objectives include achieving superior efficiency and productivity through frugual use of raw materials and energy, substituting more abundant and environmentally preferable materials for those that are less so, developing new uses for waste, and reusing materials and subassemblies when products become obsolete. Unless the efficiency of industrial ecosystems can be enhanced and continuously improved, it is likely that the aspirations of future generations will be compromised by economic decisions made today.

A useful organizing framework within which to understand and alter the operations of interacting industrial activities is industrial ecology. It uses field ecology as an analogue to characterize and model interacting industrial systems as interconnected ecosystems. In industrial ecology, energy and materials are metabolized in interrelated production processes, interacting industrial sectors, and interacting production and consumption systems. The operative unit is thus termed an industrial ecosystem; the study of these units, their interrelationship, and the influence of economic, social, and political factors on their operation is industrial ecology.

In industrial ecosystems, energy and materials are temporarily embodied in products before finally being discarded. The present industrial ecology is characterized predominantly by linear flows of materials and energy. Products are produced, consumed, and simply discarded. Where there are markets for waste (as by-products of industrial production or as discarded products), the flow of energy (within the constraints of the second law of thermodynamics) and materials is semicyclical as waste is recovered and then reintroduced into the industrial ecology. Without such markets, however, predominantly linear ecologies produce waste, which must be managed, and result in what appears to be indiscriminate use of energy and materials. Air, water, and soil pollution has resulted when production and consumption processes and practices have exceeded the environment's ability to process the waste. Reaction to the media-specific environmental ills has focused on treating the symptoms at the top of smokestacks, at the ends of drains and pipes, and in landfills. As long as cures have been applied at the end of processes, their effect on the rest of the interactive production and consumption system has been minimal. That, however, is changing.

Early signs of change in the familiar industrial ecology are found in new voluntary and regulatory pollution-prevention initiatives and in changing industry practices. The new initiatives are defining products and markets. For example, some U.S. states require that products using rechargeable batteries be designed such that the batteries can be removed. Such rules define the design and makeup of products that use them. In addition, German “take-back” legislation and Japanese recycling laws require manufacturers to recover and recycle or dispose of their products. This clearly defines market requirements and extends the responsibilities of manufacturers for their products. At the same time, corporations are instituting environmental quality and design programs aimed at continuous environmental improvement of products, processes, and business strategies. As these shifts occur, it becomes crucial to understand how the flows of energy and materials could be affected by product and process changes, how desirable changes in industrial ecosystems could be made, and how they can be measured. The reorientation of environmental rules and business practices raises several questions of market responses, energy use, material choices, product and process design, interfirm relations, material and waste management, information needs, and public policy choices.

Industrial ecology has been a recurring theme in the NAE's efforts to address the relationships among industrial production, consumption, and the environment. Building on earlier efforts, the NAE convened a three-day U.S.-Japan Workshop on Industrial Ecology in March 1993. Its purpose was to exchange ideas and views about industrial ecology and to assess the technological status and strategies (immediate, short-, and long-range) being promoted to incorporate environmental factors in innovating technologies, formulating policies, and developing management strategies.

Industrial ecology is a systems-based approach to characterizing and highlighting points of leverage and changes needed to optimize industrial practices for material and energy use as well as capital expenditure.

Botryococcus braunii AKA the Oil Machine

I'm currently interested in Botryococcus braunii. It's an algae that has 75-86% by weight hydrocarbons (long chain hdyrocarbons, ie the stuff you find in crude oil.). Yes, boys and girls, this algae produces petroleum. Its ancestors are also believed to have caused the oil deposits that we are currently depleting very rapidly now. The point is, everyone's talking about how the world will be doomed if we don't find an alternative energy source to petrol soon. Well, I believe that our doom can be avoided if we can harness the hydrocarbons produced from these algae on a large enough scale.

Of course, it's not all smooth sailing with Botryococcus braunii or we wouldn't be having the Hydrogen Powered Car nonsense, which is just that... Nonsense. It takes 30+ years to implement the hydrogen economy infrastructure, and furthermore, all hydrogen produced then would very likely come from fossil fuels. There are a few obstacles to clear, one of which is growth rate. Botryococcus braunii is slow growing for an algae species, its cell population doubles approximately every 2 days at optimum growth conditions (Dr. Jian Qing, Flinder University.). If we are to depend on this species of algae for fuel in the future, we'll need a doubling rate that's alot faster than that. It seems that we might have to look into genetic modification for this. They're also quite fragile. They prefer fresh water, although they can survive in brakish (slightly salty) water and prefer hot, warm climates where they can get plenty of sunlight (but not too much...less than 100 W/sq m/hr is ideal.). There's also the problem of oil/TAG/lipid extraction. Normally, when you extract crude oil, it's pretty straight forward. It's like sucking a carbonated drink from your typical fast food restaurant cup with a simple straw. That's because all the oil is trappped inside the ground with nothing else in them. Extracting lipids from Botryococcus braunii will not be that easy. Drying of the biomass followed by hexane extraction is what is proposed to work on a commercial scale. Supercritical lipid extraction of dried biomass has also been proposed. It may sound easy, but it's not. For both processes to be carried out at a large scale, you would need pretty expensive equipment.

However, there are some good things going for it. Firstly, the hydrocarbons that it produces matches closely to the petroleum that we're digging out of the ground now, which means that it can go through the same purification processes that petroleum goes through before they are suitable for use in cars.

They can also be used in conjunction with bioremediation efforts since they're photosynthetic organisms and love carbon dioxide, which isn't so good for us. We can build production plants full of Botryococcus braunii beside a coal power plant and feed some of the smoke coming out of the chimmeys through to these algae and they should love it. Conversely, wastewater with high nutrient content (ie, High in N, P, Fe, K, COD, etc) could be field as growth media to these production plants to further boost the Botryococcus braunii growth rates as well.